At What Cost?

So, anything to talk about for the draft? Anything?

Well, I suppose so. Ha, ha.

Obviously the huge news was the much derided trade to get Trubisky. Before I try to get into the actual cost of that trade, and trying to resolve it against the second round moves, lets talk about a concept.

Back a few weeks ago I wrote about the Chicago quarterback dogpile. While we had a dogpile, I don’t really have a problem with the stockpiling of quarterbacks. It is obviously the most important position in the league and when things go south, so does your team (anyone really like seeing Pickles on the field?).

In LA, the Rams made a mistake and had no backup when their starter went down last year and they had to toss Goff into the fire. Against what I predicted, he flopped hard, and Wentz of all people did well. You never know. But I think it is always best to let a new college fresh qb get some reps and garbage time in before tossing him into the fray. With the current stockpile, we will have the luxury of letting Trubisky watch Glennon/Sanchez/Shaw get killed while he is learning and getting used to the speed of the NFL. The concept is pretty sound and I think it is a trend that you will see with other NFL teams.

But at what cost? According to Jason at Over the Cap, the cost was approximately $12.6mm. But, as I predicted in a text to a friend last night, Pace traded down in the second round.

Bears got:
2nd round, 45th pick
4th round, 119th pick
6th round, 197th pick
4th round, 2018

Cardinals got:
2nd round, 36th pick
7th round, 221st pick

Trubisky trade:
Bears give up:
3rd round, 67th pick
4th round, 111th pick (note, the Bears have another 4th rounder this year)
3rd round, 2018

So what does all of this number soup mean? Well, the 7th rounder is crap, and is just about as valuable as a UDFA so I will cross that off the list. The fourth rounders that the Bears gave to SF and got from Arizona basically cancel each other out. The sixth and fourth from 2018 from the Cardinals basically (to me) cancel out the third we gave up to the Niners this year. So we are out, if you believe me, one third round pick to move up one spot in the first round and get Trubisky. I suppose you could dive into the numbers and hash all of this out to the penny, but I am too lazy for that.

And this isn’t taking into account that Pace might have more deals up his sleeve.

If you add to all of this that proof is beginning to bubble up that there was indeed competition for that second pick and that Trubisky was a highly rated player for a lot of teams and the decision doesn’t seem so terrible. In fact, it should bother us none at all. We needed a qb, we got likely the best on the board and we are moving forward.

In addition, what if Glennon is decent? Well, again, with the luxury of letting Trubisky sit the bench, he is great trade bait and we could end up on the top side of the trade with the Niners if we deal him away at a later date. When you think about it, there isn’t much wrong with any of this.

Draft Open Thread

Here’s an open thread for everything draft related. The draft – easily the most over-hyped television event in all of media. I will say one thing – Pace better get this right or it will likely be his last with the Bears (or any other team for that matter).

A Tale of Two Coaches

I keep track of our ex-Bear (usually terrible) coaches because I am always interested when they get new jobs. Ron Turner was the first college coach to get canned last year after a dismal 10-40 record at FIU, and John Shoop hasn’t had a job for quite some time. I think Ron will get another job of some sort eventually, but Shoop is another story. Why? Their twitter feeds.

If you look at Ron Turners feed, it is almost all congratulatory tweets to different sports people along with the weekly special at Jarling’s Custard Cup. It is mostly football, but he does spread the love to other sports as well.

John Shoop’s feed is a bizarre combination of personal items, along with political rants (mostly left wing tinfoil hat stuff) and other vitriol of this type. If there is one thing I know, it is that a potential employer typically doesn’t appreciate seeing these types of things on your public postings.

I might go so far as to say that Shoop is sort of losing his mind if you take a deep dive into his twitter feed, which I don’t recommend. I will give Shoop this much – he really has been a crusader against the NCAA, which is worthy of a pat on the back. But it isn’t getting him hired any time soon imho.

2014 Draft

This week we heard the news of Ego Ferguson getting cut. He was our second round pick in the 2014 draft, Phil Emery’s last with the Bears. Let’s take a stroll down memory lane and look at the 2014 draft.

Round 1 – Kyle Fuller (still on team)
Round 2 – Ego Ferguson (cut)
Round 3 – Will Sutton (still on team)
Round 4 – Ka’deem Carey (still on team)
Round 4 – Brock Vereen (cut)
Round 5 – none
Round 6 – David Fales (practice squad)
Round 6 – Pat O’Donnell (still on team)
Round 7 – Charles Leno Jr. (still on team)

I imagine with our free agent signings that Fuller is probably on his way out the door. Sutton is a contributor as well as Carey at times. O’Donnell is a decent punter for us. The rest are garbage. This is why Emery got fired and also why the Bears are a laughingstock. When you produce year after year of failed drafts, it simply catches up with you. You need solid contributors especially in the early rounds or the rest of the league just passes you by as your current players age.

Quarterback Dogpile

Most of the big names have been signed in free agency so we are in the NFL “doldrums” for a bit here until the draft. I thought I would take a few minutes to try to figure out just what the Bears are trying to tell us with the current dogpile we have on the team at the QB position.

Currently it is clear that Glennon will be the starter, since he has a massive guarantee for next season. Believe it or not, I am OK with this as there will be quite a few new players on offense, and if we draft a QB (more on this later) I wouldn’t want to just throw him into the fray and get killed.

Mark Sanchez was recently signed for one year. If you want to laugh, go to the Bears instagram site and check out the comments after they made the announcement. All of them (by Bear fans at least) were along the lines of “fuckfuckfuck” or “fml” or “awful!”. It is pretty hilarious. I am of the opinion that a total loser laughingstock team like the Bears should just kill their social media efforts until they are decent. Kevin White had to eventually shut off the comments on his Instagram as every time he posted, his comments filled up with “bust”, “epic bust”, “thanks for being a bust” and the like.

But I digress.

Sanchez was signed for $2mm and believe it or not I am pretty good with this deal. He may or may not make the team, and if you look around the league, that is a very good deal for a backup quarterback. Hell, McClown just signed for $6mm to play on the Jests and he is nothing more than a place filler. Would you rather have Clown at 6 or Sanchez at 2? Of course this is a dumb conversation but one that needs to be had when you are talking about a backup qb.

David Fales is a leftover from the Trestman “era” (lol) and has never really been given a chance imho. The Bears have protected him several times, promoting him to the team off of the practice squad so he doesn’t get pinched by another team, but what for? He never plays. Maybe they see something in him, but we will never know if he never hits the field.

Connor Shaw is also an unknown. After the broken leg we just don’t know where he will end up.

So we go into this year with 4 pretty craptacular QB’s in the big picture, one of whom we are overpaying by an insane amount. So what gives? What is the plan?

Well, it should be pretty clear after the draft. Of course everyone here is praying we draft a QB. I am not necessarily married to the idea that we draft the maniac Watson from Clemson with the 3 pick. In fact, I wouldn’t be adverse to seeing the Bears trade off that 3 for more picks lower down. But if they do draft Watson I would be good with it. That would basically give one of Shaw/Fales their walking papers after the Bears use them up in camp for an arm. Or maybe Sanchez will stink up the joint in camp and they will cut him.

Glennon simply can’t be the future of the team, and the Bears signed a decent deal as far as the time frame. The amount they are paying is ridiculous, as everyone will agree, but as long as there is a plan in place to bring up the QB of the future, I am more than happy to see Glennon and/or Sanchez/Fales/Shaw get killed while we are still putting our offense together. They don’t have anyone to throw the ball to anyways.

What Should the Mike Glennon Contract Tell Bear Fans?

There is much wailing and gnashing of teeth on the ‘ol interwebs about the Mike Glennon deal. I would like to take a few minutes to take a closer look at it and what the contract really says (at least what I think it is trying to say).

The reports and people shouting that OH NO THE BEARS ARE PAYING MIKE GLENNON $14.5MM PER YEAR are a bit overdone, imho. Here is why.

The contract actually reads thusly (cribbed from our friends at OTC)

Total value, $48mm, $18.5mm fully guaranteed. After year one, the Bears can cut Glennon with only $4.5mm of dead money.

This is basically a one year “prove it” deal. If Glennon does well, the Bears have a pretty good deal, with the 22nd highest paid qb in the league (as of this writing). If he sucks, he is out the door (along with Pace, Fox and all the rest, but that is a different post).

The contract is basically saying that Glennon is a placeholder. Nobody is under any illusions that Glennon is taking the Bears to great places. He will be out there getting killed like so many other Bear qbs. The reason? The Bears are going to either draft a qb with the #3 pick, or deal that pick down for more picks and draft a qb later in the 1st or maybe the 2nd round. Plain and simple. Let the new guy learn for a while, then he can go out there and get killed or toss Shaw in the mix and let him get killed too.

So don’t hyperventilate too badly over the Glennon deal. It isn’t that bad if I am reading the tea leaves correctly.

Cutty Haters Rejoice

Well it finally happened.  The Bears released Jay Cutler.  Jay is the guy that the haters blame for everything, not our revolving carousel of idiotic offensive coordinators, our terrible drafting, and our lousy roster full of injured players and free agent busts.

Now we have Mike Glennon.  Whooo hooo!  A guy who basically hasn’t played in 2 years and wasn’t great when he DID play.  Of course in today’s NFL with a swollen salary cap and a dearth of talent especially at quarterback Glennon is probably an OK choice at $14M / year.  But I’m not exactly expecting him to set the world on fire.  He is a bit of an upgrade over the starting tire fire of walking wounded from last year but not much.  Anyways, knowing the Bears, he’ll probably be hurt in the first few games (hope he makes it out of the pre-season) and we can just project his stats anyways.

And we let Jeffrey go to.  He wasn’t a bust like Kevin White but he showed just enough brilliance that I’d bet he’s going to shine once he’s off the Bears.

Over the last few years we’ve let all our skilled and all-pro (at any time in their careers) people go on offense including Forte, Cutty, Jeffrey, Marshall, and Bennett and replaced them basically with our new RB and a bunch of nothing.  It is strange that we actually have a decent O line, though.

As a Bears fan I want this all to work out.  I want to dream that Glennon on the bench was like having Rogers watch Favre and learn.  I want our new receivers to kick ass.  I want everything to be great.

But I’m not holding my breath.  Too bad it isn’t the late 80’s we would have a decent team with a solid defense, good running game and a ball control offense.  Unfortunately it is 2017 when you need an aerial assault to even have a chance which is utterly lacking for us.

I will say that any player who’s agent COULD have had them available right now is missing out on just a ludicrous free agent market of paying big for middling talent.  This giant salary cap is crazy.