At What Cost?

So, anything to talk about for the draft? Anything?

Well, I suppose so. Ha, ha.

Obviously the huge news was the much derided trade to get Trubisky. Before I try to get into the actual cost of that trade, and trying to resolve it against the second round moves, lets talk about a concept.

Back a few weeks ago I wrote about the Chicago quarterback dogpile. While we had a dogpile, I don’t really have a problem with the stockpiling of quarterbacks. It is obviously the most important position in the league and when things go south, so does your team (anyone really like seeing Pickles on the field?).

In LA, the Rams made a mistake and had no backup when their starter went down last year and they had to toss Goff into the fire. Against what I predicted, he flopped hard, and Wentz of all people did well. You never know. But I think it is always best to let a new college fresh qb get some reps and garbage time in before tossing him into the fray. With the current stockpile, we will have the luxury of letting Trubisky watch Glennon/Sanchez/Shaw get killed while he is learning and getting used to the speed of the NFL. The concept is pretty sound and I think it is a trend that you will see with other NFL teams.

But at what cost? According to Jason at Over the Cap, the cost was approximately $12.6mm. But, as I predicted in a text to a friend last night, Pace traded down in the second round.

Bears got:
2nd round, 45th pick
4th round, 119th pick
6th round, 197th pick
4th round, 2018

Cardinals got:
2nd round, 36th pick
7th round, 221st pick

Trubisky trade:
Bears give up:
3rd round, 67th pick
4th round, 111th pick (note, the Bears have another 4th rounder this year)
3rd round, 2018

So what does all of this number soup mean? Well, the 7th rounder is crap, and is just about as valuable as a UDFA so I will cross that off the list. The fourth rounders that the Bears gave to SF and got from Arizona basically cancel each other out. The sixth and fourth from 2018 from the Cardinals basically (to me) cancel out the third we gave up to the Niners this year. So we are out, if you believe me, one third round pick to move up one spot in the first round and get Trubisky. I suppose you could dive into the numbers and hash all of this out to the penny, but I am too lazy for that.

And this isn’t taking into account that Pace might have more deals up his sleeve.

If you add to all of this that proof is beginning to bubble up that there was indeed competition for that second pick and that Trubisky was a highly rated player for a lot of teams and the decision doesn’t seem so terrible. In fact, it should bother us none at all. We needed a qb, we got likely the best on the board and we are moving forward.

In addition, what if Glennon is decent? Well, again, with the luxury of letting Trubisky sit the bench, he is great trade bait and we could end up on the top side of the trade with the Niners if we deal him away at a later date. When you think about it, there isn’t much wrong with any of this.

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7 responses to “At What Cost?

  1. Carl from Chicago

    Ha ha your rational analysis won’t soothe the desire for red meat from the Bears’ nation.

    Agreed that if Trubisky turns out to be a stud then all of this is moot. A bona fide QB is worth lots and lots of draft picks. You and I liked the guy from Clemson but apparently there was a lot of aggressive interest for this guy and they wanted him so they did need to secure the spot.

    Also good not to let him get murdered immediately. Let the dogpile get their arms (Hoyer) and legs (Shaw) broken and he can fight another day.

  2. All hail the raging mob.

    My bone of contention is that if the bears REALLY wanted to draft a QB, they should have drafted the one who led his team to the college football title game back-to-back seasons. Rather draft a proven winner (despite his turnover habits) than some dude who got thirteen career starts.

    Of course I’ve always meant the draft means nothing until the players hit the field, so we shall see.

    • Dan from Madison

      I wanted Watson too. And yes, we shall see. These guys are staking their jobs on it so I hope they did the homework..

  3. Carl from Chicago

    A lot of folks said that this was quite a reckless draft by Pace. He drafted 3 guys who aren’t playing division one ball, a guy coming off a broken leg, and the QB we all have heard about.

    I guess I have to hand it to him for swinging for the fences. He’s got nothing to lose since this is likely his last draft to pick anyways since another dire season and he gets canned.

    • Dan from Madison

      Actually Pace might have bought himself another year if the Bears stink up the joint because he can say “we drafted for the future” blah blah but Fox is a dead man walking.

  4. Carl from Chicago

    Now we seem to be the laughingstock of the league for our drafting, as if that matters. Still is a bit “sad”.

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