Author Archives: Dan from Madison

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I did you all a favor and did something over the holiday.  I scoured the web for any prediction that had Illinois NOT finishing dead last in the Big Ten West.  How do you think I did?  That’s right, I couldn’t find ONE prediction that had the Illini in any other place than last.  Because we have Lovie and he will resurrect the program and stuff.  Or something.

Some good news, however – my “Fire Lovie Smith” tag is re-usable from his Bears days so at least I am saved that tiny bit of labor.

Meanwhile, you get a cool 150-1 for Illinois to win the Big Ten Title, only “bested” by Rutgers at 250-1.  I always laugh at these futures odds.  That Illinois bet should be at least a thousand to one if not more.  For Illinois to win the Big Ten every other team except perhaps Purdue and Rutgers would have to go down in a plane crash or get hit by a meteor.

Anyways, looking forward to another great year of football from Champaign.

Ron Turner Gets a New Job

Ron Rivera, in what I can only imagine was a “good old boys” hiring, has hired You Know Who to be a coaching assistant for Carolina.  I had to go through and edit our “about” page, which is getting unbelievable.  Looking forward to when Ron gets fired from this one.  More importantly, I have a new team to bet against this Fall.

On the Carr Contract

Every swinging dick on the face of the planet has thoughts on the David Carr contract, and so do I.

As usual, OTC has the breakdown of the numbers, and also as usual, I agree with most of what is said in this piece.

However, I have a few things to add.

Most readers of OTC should know that Aaron Rodgers was responsible for tanking the qb market and it appears that his artificial ceiling may have been broken. With the coming deals for Stafford and Ryan, we should see numbers above Carr’s new deal relatively soon.

I always enjoy it when OTC talks about getting “Flaccoed”. That guy cost me $$ in Reno when the Ravens won the Super Bowl. I relish every article I read about how poorly his contract has served the Ravens since.

But back to Carr. The thing that the OTC piece ignores is that NFL teams really HAVE NO CHOICE when they have an inkling of a franchise QB. Carr is very good, but he got injured at the end of last season and the Raiders instantly looked like the Bears. That was a fantastic test tube for everyone to see. No QB, no team. Period.

What are the options? Keep bringing in people like Luther, or McClown? You will NEVER have success with a strategy that does not involve a franchise QB. Sure, the Ravens of old got away with it (and so did the 85 Bears, for that matter) but that horse has long ago left the barn. Franchise QB or bust. Just draft ’em, and pay ’em. In this light, you can’t really fault the Grabowski pick of this year for the Bears. Just keep stockpiling QB’s and keep trying to land the franchise guy. It really is the only way.

Eddie Royal and Will Sutton Gone

The Bears cut Eddie Royal and Will Sutton. Royal was simply a place holder at receiver for a bit. Sutton was our third rounder in 2014. Of that 2014 draft, deftly executed by that genius Phil Emery, the Bears now have left:

Kyle Fuller (likely on his way out soon)
Ka deem Carey (placeholder running back)
Pat O Donnell (punter)

If anyone ever wonders why the Bears suck, this is the reason.

Kyle Fuller On His Way Out

The Bears declined the 5th year option on Kyle Fuller. I predict he won’t even make it to camp, sealing his fate as just the next in a series of first round busts for the Bears.

At What Cost?

So, anything to talk about for the draft? Anything?

Well, I suppose so. Ha, ha.

Obviously the huge news was the much derided trade to get Trubisky. Before I try to get into the actual cost of that trade, and trying to resolve it against the second round moves, lets talk about a concept.

Back a few weeks ago I wrote about the Chicago quarterback dogpile. While we had a dogpile, I don’t really have a problem with the stockpiling of quarterbacks. It is obviously the most important position in the league and when things go south, so does your team (anyone really like seeing Pickles on the field?).

In LA, the Rams made a mistake and had no backup when their starter went down last year and they had to toss Goff into the fire. Against what I predicted, he flopped hard, and Wentz of all people did well. You never know. But I think it is always best to let a new college fresh qb get some reps and garbage time in before tossing him into the fray. With the current stockpile, we will have the luxury of letting Trubisky watch Glennon/Sanchez/Shaw get killed while he is learning and getting used to the speed of the NFL. The concept is pretty sound and I think it is a trend that you will see with other NFL teams.

But at what cost? According to Jason at Over the Cap, the cost was approximately $12.6mm. But, as I predicted in a text to a friend last night, Pace traded down in the second round.

Bears got:
2nd round, 45th pick
4th round, 119th pick
6th round, 197th pick
4th round, 2018

Cardinals got:
2nd round, 36th pick
7th round, 221st pick

Trubisky trade:
Bears give up:
3rd round, 67th pick
4th round, 111th pick (note, the Bears have another 4th rounder this year)
3rd round, 2018

So what does all of this number soup mean? Well, the 7th rounder is crap, and is just about as valuable as a UDFA so I will cross that off the list. The fourth rounders that the Bears gave to SF and got from Arizona basically cancel each other out. The sixth and fourth from 2018 from the Cardinals basically (to me) cancel out the third we gave up to the Niners this year. So we are out, if you believe me, one third round pick to move up one spot in the first round and get Trubisky. I suppose you could dive into the numbers and hash all of this out to the penny, but I am too lazy for that.

And this isn’t taking into account that Pace might have more deals up his sleeve.

If you add to all of this that proof is beginning to bubble up that there was indeed competition for that second pick and that Trubisky was a highly rated player for a lot of teams and the decision doesn’t seem so terrible. In fact, it should bother us none at all. We needed a qb, we got likely the best on the board and we are moving forward.

In addition, what if Glennon is decent? Well, again, with the luxury of letting Trubisky sit the bench, he is great trade bait and we could end up on the top side of the trade with the Niners if we deal him away at a later date. When you think about it, there isn’t much wrong with any of this.

Draft Open Thread

Here’s an open thread for everything draft related. The draft – easily the most over-hyped television event in all of media. I will say one thing – Pace better get this right or it will likely be his last with the Bears (or any other team for that matter).